Subscription Box Statistics (and a little bit of faith)
If you're in the first year of your subscription box business, you're still learning your seasonality. Here's what that might look like, with the actual income graph of our subscription box over the past 4 years.
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I sometimes see clients worry about their subscriber numbers slowing a bit, especially around this time of year.
Now, it really depends on what your box is, but each subscription box will have its own seasonality - times of the year when it's busier than others.
I want to share with you the turnover graph for my subscription box, Craftiosity, so you can see what I mean.
First, a little background. Year 1 is the blue line - I launched the subscription box that Winter, alongside having a daytime job. Initially, the boxes went out every second month.
Year 2 is red, year 3 is yellow, year 4 is green, and we're currently in year 5 (orange).
Three key things:
- Christmas is a biggie for gifting subscription boxes.
- During lockdown, a lot of people took to crafting as a way to relax / try something new at home, so we saw a big lift in Spring 2020 as well (green line).
- But when it's not about crafting during lockdown, the Spring / Summer is quieter, Autumn gets busier, Christmas booms.
Interestingly, you'll also notice that after the first big boom Christmas (yellow line), January dropped quite a bit - that's because I was exhausted after December took me by surprise! (Before I had any support in place).
So, if your subscription box is new-ish, and you've still to see how your turnover changes from one year to the next, know you could just be experiencing seasonality.
Keeping a track of your turnover like this is also hugely useful for forecasting. You can use the previous year to help you predict - all things continuing as they are - your turnover each month for the following year.
Then, if your estimate and reality are out (up or down), you can adjust your expectations and planning.
That's the statistics bit, let's talk about faith.
In the early days of your sub box, you need to have faith - in yourself.
Specifically, do you trust yourself to really learn about your customers, what they want, and how you can delight them?
Do you have faith in your ability to stay curious, keep testing and experimenting until you find the things that work - your offer, reach, systems, support?
Do you have faith that you'll keep learning and reiterating until you create something really special that people love?
(Going back to that graph, I had *no idea* what was going to happen when I was year 1.)
Now, I had plenty of doubt, down days, imposter syndrome - and the rest, but I knew I was willing to keep learning and making it better.
I had faith in that.
Before I scoot off, I'm delighted to share another case study from one of my Subscription Box Academy clients, Comfort of Fundi Box, the African craft subscription box - you can read more from Comfort and how she found Subscription Box Academy here.
All my best,
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